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Simulação eleitoral: uma nova metodologia para a ciência política

This article presents complex systems simulation as a new method for the study the electoral behavior, assuming that social interactions are the key for each voter's decision. Insofar as public opinion polls uses information limited to the moment the interview is conducted, they cannot forecast changes overtime in each voter's choice that may be caused by interactions with the media or others voters. In contrast, the electoral simulator shows to be an interesting tool for electoral analysis because it introduces such interactions as premises. In this article, we present the theoretical model of the simulator, followed by simulations made for the 2002 and 2004 elections in Brazil.

social interaction; electoral behavior; electoral simulation


Centro de Estudos de Opinião Pública da Universidade Estadual de Campinas Cidade Universitária 'Zeferino Vaz", CESOP, Rua Cora Coralina, 100. Prédio dos Centros e Núcleos (IFCH-Unicamp), CEP: 13083-896 Campinas - São Paulo - Brasil, Tel.: (55 19) 3521-7093 - Campinas - SP - Brazil
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