Forecasting of optimal hedge ratios for the Brazilian exported mango

Abstract:

This study forecast the effective’s optimal hedge ratios in diminishing the risk price of Brazilian mango exported, by futures markets. It was collected 300 monthly average mango prices US$ FOB/kg, between 1989 and 2013, from the site AliceWeb2. It was used the ARIMA models to forecast the futures prices. It was built 48 scenarios for each hedging approach used in this study: Minimum Variance, Mean-Variance and BEKK-GARCH. The futures contracts with maturities of 05 and 09 months had the best hedge effectiveness averages (35% and 36%), with optimal hedge ratios of 86.5% and 75.1%, in short positions. In practical matters, the BEKK-GARCH dynamic model had satisfactory hedge results only in large periods, showing its sensibility towards the size, and the prevalence of statics hedge approach in small periods.

Keywords:
price risk; mango exported; ARIMA model; Hedging approaches; futures markets