Dívida pública brasileira: uma análise comparativa dos três principais indicadores de esforço fiscal do governo

Abstract:

This article aims to compare the three Brazilian public debt indicators most used as measures of the country's fiscal condition: the Net Public Sector Debt and the Gross General Government Debt calculated by the Central Bank of Brazil, as well as the Gross General Government Debt calculated by the International Monetary Fund. The goal of this paper is to find out which of these most accurately measures the government's fiscal effort at present. For this purpose, correlation exercises were carried out between these indicators and two economic parameters related to the ability and willingness of the government to meet its fiscal commitments: economic growth and primary surplus. The same correlation exercises were repeated for a period of increased volatility in global financial markets, in order to observe how those indicators react, in general, at times when the government needs to raise capital at higher costs. The results suggest that the Gross General Government Debt calculated by the Central Bank of Brazil is the best among the three tested indicators as a measure of Brazilian fiscal performance in recent years.

Keywords :
Public Debt; Government; Fiscal Effort; Concepts; Methodology