Dois colapsos de crescimento: Brasil e México desde o início dos anos 1980

EDMAR BACHA

Casa das Garças Institute for Economic Policy Studies, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. ebacha@iepecdg.com

REGIS BONELLI

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. regis.bonelli@fgv.br

EDMAR BACHA is an economist and director of the Institute of Economic Policy Studies at the Casa das Garças. He has been a member of the Plano Real economic team, and president of the BNDES bank and of the IBGE institute. He is also a professor at the PUCRio, UFRJ and UNB universities, as well as at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation in Rio de Janeiro (FGVRJ). He has been visiting professor at Columbia, Yale, Berkeley and Stanford universities, and associate researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the University of Harvard. In this article he was responsible for analysing microeconomic and structural topics.

REGIS BONELLI has a doctorate in economics from the University of California and is a senior researcher at the Brazilian Economics Institute at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, as well as being a member of Codace and associate researcher at the Casa das Garças. He has been executive director of the BNDES bank, research director of the IPEA institute, and director general of the IBGE institute, in addition to being a professor in the Economics Department of the PUCRio university, and visiting researcher at the Centre for Brazilian Studies at Oxford University in England. In this article he was responsible for analysing topics relating to macroeconomics and growth.

	Brazil	Mexico	Brazil’s average GDP growth	Mexico’s average GDP growth
Post-WWII Golden Age	1950-1980	1950-1981	7.4%	6.8%
Post-1980 Near Stagnation	1981-2014	1982-2014	2.6%	2.2%
Lost Decade	1981-1992	1982-1993	1.4%	1.6%
Reforms with Subpar Growth	1993-2003	1994-2001	2.8%	3.0%
China Syndrome	2004-2010	2002-2010	4.5%	1.9%
Day after the Great Recession	2011-2014	2011-2014	2.1%	2.9%

BRAZIL	Periods	K’	s	v	p	δ*
Post-WWII Golden Age	1950-1980	8.8%	19.4%	0.506	0.784	3.6%
Lost Decade	1981-1992	3.3%	20.9%	0.357	1.009	4.1%
Reforms with Subpar Growth	1993-2003	2.1%	18.3%	0.352	1.013	4.2%
China Syndrome	2004-2010	2.8%	18.5%	0.382	1.024	4.1%
Day after the Great Recession	2011-2014	4.0%	20.3%	0.383	0.973	4.0%
Post-1980 Near Stagnation	1981-2014	2.9%	19.5%	0.364	1.009	4.1%

MEXICO⁸ 8 A direct calculation of p yields results only slightly different from those in Table 3. Thus, for instance, p in 1950‑1981 estimated directly from the PENN World Tables is equal to 0.833 with 1980 = 1.0. It equals 0.943 in 1982‑1993 and 0.910 in 1982‑2014. Therefore, relative changes are similar under both alternatives. The savings rate in current prices (s) for Mexico was estimated by the authors from Hofman’s investment rate in 1980 prices multiplied by the relative price of investment goods in the PENN Tables, with 1980 set equal to 1.0.	Periods	K’	s	v	p*	δ**
Post-WWII Golden Age	1950-1981	8.0%	16.4%	0.656	0.795	5.6%
Lost Decade	1982-1993	3.3%	17.3%	0.470	0.915	5.6%
Reforms with Subpar Growth	1994-2001	3.7%	17.5%	0.443	0.842	5.5%
China Syndrome	2002-2010	3.5%	22.2%	0.410	0.967	6.0%
Day after the Great Recession	2011-2014	2.8%	21.5%	0.391	0.919	6.3%
Post-1980 Near Stagnation	1982-2014	3.4%	18.5%	0.438	0.887	5.8%

Periods	y’	L’	α*k’	TFP’
1951-1980	4.2%	3.1%	2.5%	1.7%
1981-1992	-0.8%	2.2%	0.7%	-1.4%
1993-2003	0.3%	2.5%	-0.2%	0.4%
2004-2010	2.2%	0.5%	0.2%	2.0%
2011-2014	1.1%	1.0%	1.3%	-0.2%
1981-2014	0.4%	2.2%	0.4%	0.0%

Periods	y’	L’	α*k’	TFP’
1951-1981	3.4%	3.2%	2.1%	1.3%
1982-1993	-1.7%	3.4%	0.1%	-1.8%
1994-2001	0.7%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
2002-2010	0.3%	1.6%	0.9%	-0.5%
2011-2014	1.0%	1.9%	0.4%	0.6%
1982-2014	-0.2%	2.5%	0.5%	-0.7%

Brazil and Mexico, 1981-2014 (34 observations)
	Dep. Var.	Dep. Var.	Dep.Var.	Dep. Var.
Variable	TFP’ Brazil (1)	TFP’ Brazil (2)	TFP’ Mexico (3)	TFP’ Mexico (4)
Constant	-0,073	0,098	-0,210	-0,449
(t-ratio)	(-0,26)	(-0,42)	(-0,76)	(-2,18)
Terms of trade rate of change	0,080	0,065	0,177	0,092
(t-ratio)	(-1,94)	(-1,93)	(-4,63)	(-2,95)
Utilization gap change (Brazil)	-0,915
(t-ratio)	(-5,66)
Output gap change (Bra) HP filter		-0,876
(t-ratio)		(-7,80)
Unemployment rate change (Mex)			-1,604
(t-ratio)			(-5,50)
Output gap change (Mex) HP filter				-0,712
(t-ratio)				(-8,96)
Adjusted R2	0,671	0,775	0,669	0,818
Standard error of regression	1,60	1,33	1,58	1,18
DW	1,68	1,21	1,90	1,61
F-ratio	34,68	57,68	34,29	75,02

Average Productivity Growth Rates (% p.a.)
Firm size Employment share	(average 2007-13)	1996-2007	2007-2013	1996-2013
Less than 10 employees	9.5	--	3.8	--
10 to 29	13.5	--	1.5	--
30 - 99	16.4	-2.3	0.5	-0.7
100 - 249	11.1	-1.3	-0.2	-1.2
250 - 499	8.6	0.0	-3.2	-1.3
500 +	40.8	0.0	-2.8	-0.7
Total	100.0	-0.3	-1.6	-0.7

Brasil