The goal of this work was to develop a model to predict the occurrence of Ecdytolopha aurantiana (Lima), based on monitoring data collected through sexual pheromone traps. Soil type, site temperature, citrus variety, age of plants and use of chemicals to control E. aurantiana influenced the population dynamics of the insect. The highest influence was exerted by the soil type, followed by site temperature, citrus variety, age of plants and the use of chemicals for E. aurantiana control. The occurrence of E. aurantiana according to temperature is different for each combination of soil type, citrus variety, age of plants and use of chemicals. The model developed can predict the occurrence potential of E. aurantiana according to temperature or months of the year, taking into account soil type, citrus variety, age of plants and chemicals spraying. The elaborated software (BF), designed in R language, includes equations that simulate the various situations of E. aurantiana occurrence. The predicting model of citrus fruit borer occurrence can be improved with more frequent and continuous data collecting.
Predictive model; pest survey; citrus pest; pheromone
