DROUGHT RISK IN THE SEMI-ARID OF BAHIA

Abstract

Drought is a complex and poorly understood climatic phenomenon. Drought risk studies are vital factors in formulating public policies. This research aimed to characterize the drought risk in the semi-arid region of Bahia, emphasizing the agricultural sector. To this end, risk scenarios were elaborated, considering the concepts associated with risk theory. Four key indicators were considered for vulnerability: agricultural, environmental, technological, and educational. The results indicate that the semi-arid region’s risk is at least high for all drought conditions. In more intense drought conditions, the risk is critical. All the scenarios showed that due to the vulnerabilities found, drought in the region can generate a climate crisis of immeasurable proportions and consequences at different scales. We also demonstrate that the drought risk in the region seems to be more closely linked to socio-spatial particularities than to the severity of the phenomenon itself, highlighting the need for specific public policies. It was concluded, therefore, that more intense drought scenarios can increase the uncertainty of agricultural activities and intensify food insecurity, resulting in social turbulence and putting the region at high risk for agricultural activity. However, with access to appropriate technologies, sustainable agricultural and environmental management related to the region's climate rhythm, and high educational investments for the local population, it is possible to coexist with the particularities of the tropical climate in the semi-arid region.

Keywords:
Precipitation; Anomaly; Disaster