Statistical Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Maximum Precipitation Events on the Rio Grande do Sul

Corrêa, Cleber Souza

doi:10.5028/jatm.2012.04025811

Abstract:

A statistical analysis of precipitation at Rio Grande do Sul State was presented in this article. The aim of this work was to identify spatial and temporal patterns of maximum precipitation, which was achieved by fitting a theoretical variogram in maximum annual rainfalls and its times of occurrence. In the literature, it was found that this pattern occurs according to phenomena typical from middle latitude, such as low and high level jet, and interactions between them. Some years ago, the relationship between maximum annual rainfalls and synoptic predominant configurations was found. Therefore, this work sought on understanding the climatic characteristics that are important in Aerospace and Aeronautics, as extreme weather can cause numerous consequences in these activities. The use and validation of this proposed method would make possible its application in other regions of interest in the Brazilian Aerospace. Understanding these climatological features of the atmospheric circulation dynamics, and analyzing maximum annual rainfall would allow a more efficient and appropriate climate trend forecast and its application in aerospace activities.

Keywords:
Geostatistics; Maximum Annual Rainfall; Low Level Jet

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REFERENCES

Abdoulaev, S. et al, 2001, "Sistemas de Mesoescala de Precipitações no Rio Grande do Sul. Parte 2: Tempestades em Sistemas não lineares de convecção severa", Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, Vol. 16, No. l, pp. 101-114.
Abdoulaev, S. et al, 1996, "Internai Structure of Non-Line Mesoscale Convective System in Southern Brazil", In: Congresso Brasileiro De Meteorologia, Campos do Jordão, Anais... v. 2, pp. 883-887.
De Barros, S. S., Oyama, M. D., 2010, "Sistemas Meteorológicos Associados à Ocorrência de Precipitação no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara", Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 333-344.
Berbery, E. H., Collini, E. A., 2000, "Springtime precipitation and water vapor flux convergence over southeastem South America", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 28, pp. 1328-1346.
Corrêa, C. S., 2005, "Estudo estatístico da ocorrência dejatos no perfil vertical do vento na baixa atmosfera e a sua relação com eventos de intensa precipitação pluvial no Rio Grande do Sul" (In Portuguese), PhD Thesis, Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre.
Chen, G.T.J., Yu, C.C., 1988, "Study of low-level jet and extremely heavy rainfall over northem Taiwan in the Mei-Yu season", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 884-891.
Chen, C. et al, 1991, "A Study of a Mountain-generated Precipitation System in Northern Taiwan during TAMEX IOP 8", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 119, No. 11, pp. 2574-2606.
Helfand, H. M., Schubert, S. D., 1995, "Climatology of simulated great plains low-level jet and its contribuition to the continental moisture budget of the United States", Journal of Climate, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp. 784-806.
Higgins, R. W. et al, 1997, "Influence of the great plains low-level jet on summertime precipitation and moisture transport over the central United States", Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, pp. 481-507.
Huijbregts, C. J., 1975, "Regionalized variables and quantitative analysis of spatial data", In: Davis, J. C., McCullagh, M. J. (ed.), Display and analysis of spatial data, New York, John Wiley, pp. 38-53.
Lackmann, G. M., 2002, "Cold-frontal potential vorticity maxima, the low-leveljet, and moisture transport in extratropical cyclones", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 130, pp. 59-74.
Liebmann, B. et al, 2004, "Subseasonal Variations of Rainfall in South America in the vicinity of the Low-level Jet East of the Andes and Comparison to those in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone", Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, pp. 3829-3842.
Maddox, R. A., Doswell III, C. A., 1982, "Anexaminationofjet stream configurations, 500mb vorticity advection and low-level thermal advection pattems during extended periods of intense convection", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 110, pp. 184-197.
Nicolini, M. and Saulo, A. C., 2000, "Eta characterization of the 1997-1998 warm season Chaco jet cases". Preprints of the 6th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Chile, pp. 330-331.
Rao, V. B., Hada, K., 1990, "Characteristics of Rainfall over Brazil - annual variations and connections with the Southern oscillation", Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 81-91.
Saulo, A. C. et al, 2007, "Synergism between the Low-level Jet and Organized Convection at its exit Region", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 135, pp. 1310-1326.
Uccellini, L. W., Johnson, D. R., 1979, "The coupling of upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks and implications for the development of severe convective systems", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 107, No. 6, pp. 662-703.
Whiteman, C. D. et al, 1997, "Low-leveljet climatology from enhanced Rawinsonding observations at a site in the Southern Great Plains", Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 36, pp. 1363-1376.

Publication Dates

Publication in this collection
Apr-Jun 2012

History

Received
07 Dec 2011
Accepted
09 Mar 2012

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

[1] Abdoulaev, S. et al, 2001, "Sistemas de Mesoescala de Precipitações no Rio Grande do Sul. Parte 2: Tempestades em Sistemas não lineares de convecção severa", Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, Vol. 16, No. l, pp. 101-114.

[2] Abdoulaev, S. et al, 1996, "Internai Structure of Non-Line Mesoscale Convective System in Southern Brazil", In: Congresso Brasileiro De Meteorologia, Campos do Jordão, Anais... v. 2, pp. 883-887.

[3] De Barros, S. S., Oyama, M. D., 2010, "Sistemas Meteorológicos Associados à Ocorrência de Precipitação no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara", Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 333-344.

[4] Berbery, E. H., Collini, E. A., 2000, "Springtime precipitation and water vapor flux convergence over southeastem South America", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 28, pp. 1328-1346.

[5] Corrêa, C. S., 2005, "Estudo estatístico da ocorrência dejatos no perfil vertical do vento na baixa atmosfera e a sua relação com eventos de intensa precipitação pluvial no Rio Grande do Sul" (In Portuguese), PhD Thesis, Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre.

[6] Chen, G.T.J., Yu, C.C., 1988, "Study of low-level jet and extremely heavy rainfall over northem Taiwan in the Mei-Yu season", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 884-891.

[7] Chen, C. et al, 1991, "A Study of a Mountain-generated Precipitation System in Northern Taiwan during TAMEX IOP 8", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 119, No. 11, pp. 2574-2606.

[8] Helfand, H. M., Schubert, S. D., 1995, "Climatology of simulated great plains low-level jet and its contribuition to the continental moisture budget of the United States", Journal of Climate, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp. 784-806.

[9] Higgins, R. W. et al, 1997, "Influence of the great plains low-level jet on summertime precipitation and moisture transport over the central United States", Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, pp. 481-507.

[10] Huijbregts, C. J., 1975, "Regionalized variables and quantitative analysis of spatial data", In: Davis, J. C., McCullagh, M. J. (ed.), Display and analysis of spatial data, New York, John Wiley, pp. 38-53.

[11] Lackmann, G. M., 2002, "Cold-frontal potential vorticity maxima, the low-leveljet, and moisture transport in extratropical cyclones", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 130, pp. 59-74.

[12] Liebmann, B. et al, 2004, "Subseasonal Variations of Rainfall in South America in the vicinity of the Low-level Jet East of the Andes and Comparison to those in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone", Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, pp. 3829-3842.

[13] Maddox, R. A., Doswell III, C. A., 1982, "Anexaminationofjet stream configurations, 500mb vorticity advection and low-level thermal advection pattems during extended periods of intense convection", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 110, pp. 184-197.

[14] Nicolini, M. and Saulo, A. C., 2000, "Eta characterization of the 1997-1998 warm season Chaco jet cases". Preprints of the 6th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Chile, pp. 330-331.

[15] Rao, V. B., Hada, K., 1990, "Characteristics of Rainfall over Brazil - annual variations and connections with the Southern oscillation", Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 81-91.

[16] Saulo, A. C. et al, 2007, "Synergism between the Low-level Jet and Organized Convection at its exit Region", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 135, pp. 1310-1326.

[17] Uccellini, L. W., Johnson, D. R., 1979, "The coupling of upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks and implications for the development of severe convective systems", Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 107, No. 6, pp. 662-703.

[18] Whiteman, C. D. et al, 1997, "Low-leveljet climatology from enhanced Rawinsonding observations at a site in the Southern Great Plains", Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 36, pp. 1363-1376.

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