Despite undeniable successes, the State of Israel faces structural problems caused by its conflict with the Arab world. This text analyzes five underestimated vulnerabilities: (1) demography: growth of ultra-Orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs, both anti-Zionist, that threatens to turn Zionist Jews into a minority; (2) strategy: new forms of Arab resistance, both military, such as missiles, as well as peaceful, such as nonviolent resistance, are gradually making Israeli enemy territory occupation counterproductive; (3) regional: the Arab Spring is, despite setbacks, a step in the democratization and modernization of Arab societies which will eventually undermine Israel's qualitative-educational advantage; (4) international: Israel is militarily and economically dependent on the Western support, however, driven by the impact of their own demographic and cultural evolution, Europeans are becoming even more indifferent or hostile towards Israel; and even in the US, Israel's last reserve of sympathy, the identification with the Israeli state may become more fragile; (5) Jewish world: due to the increasingly particularistic orientation of Israel, there is, instead of mutual legitimization, a growing risk of alienation between the Jewish diasporas and Israel. The article concludes that the political, military and sociocultural costs imposed on Israel by its permanent belligerency may constitute an existential risk. These dilemmas may one day threat its survival as a Jewish State.
Israel; Palestine; security; demographics; international criticism; conflict resolution; Zionism