Evaluation of the total systemic cost of wind power generation in face of the replacement of hydroelectric and thermoelectric sources considering socioeconomic and environmental externalities

Abstract

The power generation market has been under constant expansion in Brazil. This market consists of different sources of power generation, which carry different socioeconomic and environmental impacts linked to their operations. These impacts generate externalities in the form of damage to society, and their compensation is not of common consensus among stakeholders. In this sense, through the application of the systems thinking method, this article aims to create a computer model of system dynamics that enables the evaluation of the total systemic cost, considering the externalities of power generation. To this end, an adaptation of the STSP – Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning method was applied. In the first phase, a greater understanding of the subject was raised. Subsequently, there was the construction of the computational model. Finally, the model was applied to three real plants in order to assess of the integration of wind power in face of the replacement of hydroelectric and thermal (coal) sources. The results show an evolution in the understanding on the comparison of the actual cost of energy to society due to the learning provided by the use of systems thinking in conjunction with the dynamic modeling of systems. The findings also indicate a change in the decisions about the energy matrix, if a systemic cost for evaluating new projects is adopted.

Keywords:
Systems thinking; Total systemic cost; Power generation externalities; System dynamics modeling; Decision-making