Climate change and social vulnerability of the lagoon coastline of Rio Grande do Sul: mapping the social vulnerability index for the coast of Pelotas-RS

Abstract

The sea-level rise resulting from climate change is altering the dynamics of coastal systems, putting the population residing in low-lying coastal areas at risk. Identifying the population in a situation of social vulnerability is essential, as it is this population that will suffer even more from the impact of sea-level rise. The aim of this article was to generate a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for the coast Pelotas, in the Rio Grande do Sul. The approach adopted was principal component analysis, using 11 indicators for the year 2010 in the census sectors in contact with the coastline. The methodology explained 80.8% of the data variance from 3 components. Most sectors had a high SoVI (82.6%), and the income and education indicators had the greatest weight in the index definition.

Keywords:
Social vulnerability index; Climate change; Sea-level rise; Principal component analysis; Local scale