Characterization of the 2010-decade historical drought in Paraiba do Sul River Basin, São Paulo State, Brazil

Neves, Anderson de Oliveira; Vilanova, Mateus Ricardo Nogueira

doi:10.1590/S1413-415220190023

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Artigo Técnico • Eng. Sanit. Ambient. 26 (2) • Mar-Apr 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/S1413-415220190023 copy

Characterization of the 2010-decade historical drought in Paraiba do Sul River Basin, São Paulo State, Brazil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The Paraiba do Sul River Basin was affected by one of the most severe drought periods in its recent history, during the years 2013 to 2015, which resulted in several consequences for the management of its water resources. This article aims to contribute to the understanding of this historical event in the São Paulo Stretch of the Paraiba do Sul River Basin, through the calculation and analysis of the standardized precipitation index (SPI). SPI was calculated for the time scales of 1, 3, 6, and 12 months, for 22 rainfall stations located in the study area. The results showed that the drought occurred between 2013 and 2014 was one of the most severe ever recorded, and that the summer of 2014 was the critical period in terms of reduction of regional rainfall. This drought impacted the storage and regularization capacity of the main reservoir of the region, the Paraibuna Reservoir. Although the peak of the water crisis occurred mainly due to the 2013/2014 drought, it was found that it was influenced by the cumulative effect of a previous dry period, that occurred since the beginning of the year of 2011. This result reinforces the importance of multiannual planning for the operation of the Paraíba do Sul River Basin Hydraulic System.

Keywords:
rainfall; standardized precipitation index; water shortage; Paraiba do Sul River

Reservatório	Volume máximo (hm³)	Volume útil (hm³)	Capacidade hidrelétrica (MW)
Paraibuna	4.731,7	2.636,1	86
Santa Branca	439,0	308,0	59
Jaguari	1.235,6	792,5	28
Funil	888,3	605,3	222

Código ANA	Cidade	Latitude	Longitude	Altitude (m)	Ano deinício da série	Precipitação anual média (mm)
2244001	Queluz	22°32’58’’ S	44°47’20’’ W	500	1957	1.395
2244010	Cachoeira Paulista	22°41’31’’ S	44°58’30’’ W	550	1936	1.382
2245020	Lorena	22°44’00’’ S	45°05’00’’ W	540	1957	1.276
2245032	Guaratinguetá	22°48’44’’ S	45°10’57’’ W	519	1930	1.384
2245035	Pindamonhangaba	22°49’00’’ S	44°22’00’’ W	540	1957	1.212
2245048	Pindamonhangaba	22°54’40’’ S	45°28’13’’ W	524	1932	1.232
2245053	Aparecida	22°57’00’’ S	45°15’00’’ W	690	1957	1.249
2245054	Monteiro Lobato	22°56’00’’ S	45°50’00’’ W	680	1939	1.827
2345001	Taubaté	23°02’00’’ S	45°34’00’’ W	610	1963	1.345
2345004	Caçapava	23°02’00’’ S	45°47’00’’ W	580	1969	1.549
2345008	Caçapava	23°05’00’’ S	45°40’00’’ W	580	1945	1.173
2345012	Caçapava	23°08’00’’ S	45°43’00’’ W	620	1942	1.282
2345022	Jambeiro	23°15’00’’ S	45°41’00’’ W	700	1943	1.284
2345062	Taubaté	23°02’22’’ S	45°33’32’’ W	586	1937	1.290
2345063	Caçapava	23°04’40’’ S	45°42’37’’ W	545	1929	1.290
2345161	Taubaté	23°04’00’’ S	45°30’00’’ W	600	1957	1.066
2345164	São José dos Campos	23°11’00’’ S	45°48’00’’ W	570	1960	1.275
2346019	Santa Isabel	23°20’00’’ S	46°14’00’’ W	690	1937	1.345
2346344	Igaratá	23°12’00’’ S	46°09’00’’ W	780	1972	1.409
					Média	1.330

IPP	Classe de seca	Severidade, tempo de retorno (anos)
0 > IPP ³ -0,99	Branda	3
−1 ³ IPP ³ -1,49	Moderada	10
−1,50 ³ IPP ³ -1,99	Severa	20
−2 ≤ IPP	Extrema	50

Código ANA	Cidade	Ano inicial da série	Mês mais seco	Três meses mais secos	Seis meses mais secos	Doze meses mais secos
2244001	Queluz	1957	out./05	jan./14	abr./63	jan./14
2244010	Cachoeira Paulista	1936	fev./84	jan./14	jan./14	dez./13
2245020	Lorena	1957	fev./84	jan./14	ago./81	jan./81
2245032	Guaratinguetá	1930	jan./75	jan./75	nov./74	ago./74
2245035	Pindamonhangaba	1957	jan/07	jan./14	nov./91	jan./81
2245048	Pindamonhangaba	1932	jan./56	jan./14	mar./63	jan./14
2245053	Aparecida	1957	jan./14	nov./12	set./12	jan./81
2245054	Monteiro Lobato	1939	fev./57	nov./92	set./92	fev./81
2345001	Taubaté	1963	fev./73	dez./72	ago./81	mar./81
2345004	Caçapava	1969	mar./15	jul./11	jun./10	out./00
2345008	Caçapava	1945	jan./55	out./81	jul./81	maio/11
2345012	Caçapava	1942	fev./84	fev./81	ago./81	jan./81
2345022	Jambeiro	1943	jan./71	jan./69	jan./69	fev./81
2345062	Taubaté	1937	mar./68	nov./05	mar./68	nov./79
2345063	Caçapava	1929	fev./77	dez./13	dez./13	ago./13
2345071	Santa Branca	1957	out./14	jul./63	mar./75	maio/77
2345106	Jacareí	1960	nov./96	abr./00	mar./75	nov./13
2345159	Taubaté	1937	dez./81	out./81	jul./81	jan./81
2345161	Taubaté	1972	out./89	maio/63	abr./63	set./90
2345164	São José dos Campos	1957	fev./84	fev./81	ago./81	jan./81
2346019	Santa Isabel	1936	abr./78	out./37	abr./63	jun./44
2346344	Igaratá	1957	jan./75	fev./81	fev./81	jan./81

Código ANA	Cidade	Ano										Eventos de seca
Código ANA	Cidade	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	Eventos de seca
2244001	Queluz	−2,16										1
2244010	Cachoeira Paulista		−1,04							−4,08		2
2245020	Lorena										−1,59	1
2245032	Guaratinguetá										−1,78	1
2245035	Pindamonhangaba										−1,54	1
2245048	Pindamonhangaba										−2,31	1
2245053	Aparecida	−1,29	−1,24					−2,05	−2,11			4
2245054	Monteiro Lobato										−1,03	1
2345001	Taubaté	−1,18									−1,42	2
2345004	Caçapava					−1,10		−1,47				2
2345008	Caçapava		−1,29	−1,22		−1,89	−1,63	−1,94	−2,72			6
2345012	Caçapava						−1,42					1
2345022	Jambeiro			−1,05	−1,65			−1,98				3
2345062	Taubaté	−2,04									−1,65	2
2345063	Caçapava						−1,12		−1,39	−1,70		3
2345071	Santa Branca									−1,20	−2,45	2
2345106	Jacareí				−1,37					−1,18	−2,27	3
2345159	Taubaté											0
2345161	Taubaté							−1,75				1
2345164	São José dos Campos											0
2346019	Santa Isabel											0
2346344	Igaratá									−1,06		1

Código ANA	Cidade	Ano										Eventos de seca
Código ANA	Cidade	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Eventos de seca
2244001	Queluz							−2,20		−2,92		2
2244010	Cachoeira Paulista		−1,04							−4,08		2
2245020	Lorena		−1,08							−3,45		2
2245032	Guaratinguetá		−1,77							−2,70		2
2245035	Pindamonhangaba		−2,10					−1,05		−2,59		3
2245048	Pindamonhangaba		−1,21					−1,36		−3,56		3
2245053	Aparecida	−1,72					−1,43	−2,74	−2,18	−3,15		5
2245054	Monteiro Lobato									−2,25		1
2345001	Taubaté		−1,18							−1,37	−1,09	3
2345004	Caçapava		−1,19							−2,06		2
2345008	Caçapava		−1,99		−2,09	−1,95	−1,54	−2,56	−1,95	−3,04		7
2345012	Caçapava		−1,26							−2,08		2
2345022	Jambeiro			−1,02				−1,16		−1,63		3
2345062	Taubaté	−1,73	−1,01							−1,28		3
2345063	Caçapava		−1,49							−4,25		2
2345071	Santa Branca									−1,65		1
2345106	Jacareí		−1,98		−1,18					−1,98		3
2345159	Taubaté		−1,35							−1,98		2
2345161	Taubaté							−1,70				1
2345164	São José dos Campos		−1,44							−1,89		2
2346019	Santa Isabel									−1,23		1
2346344	Igaratá									−1,78		1

Código ANA	Cidade	Ano										Eventos de seca
Código ANA	Cidade	2005 2006	2006 2007	2007 2008	2008 2009	2009 2010	2010 2011	2011 2012	2012 2013	2013 2014	2014 2015	Eventos de seca
2244001	Queluz	−1,71						−1,23		−1,95		3
2244010	Cachoeira Paulista									−3,48		1
2245020	Lorena								−1,03	−2,65	−1,16	3
2245032	Guaratinguetá									−1,81	−1,24	2
2245035	Pindamonhangaba		−1,22					−1,17		−1,64	−1,06	4
2245048	Pindamonhangaba		−1,25					−1,61		−2,33	−1,45	4
2245053	Aparecida	−1,79	−1,17				−1,33	−3,12	−3,07	−2,24		6
2245054	Monteiro Lobato									−1,26		1
2345001	Taubaté									−1,07	−1,67	2
2345004	Caçapava							−1,06				1
2345008	Caçapava		−2,24		−1,01	−2,59	−2,14	−3,04	−2,99	−2,05		7
2345012	Caçapava		−1,20									1
2345022	Jambeiro			−1,48				−2,20		−1,15		3
2345062	Taubaté	−2,57								−1,05	−1,74	3
2345063	Caçapava		−1,73							−4,33		2
2345071	Santa Branca									−1,90		1
2345106	Jacareí				−1,77				−1,22	−2,25	−1,09	4
2345159	Taubaté									−1,77		1
2345161	Taubaté							−2,01				1
2345164	São José dos Campos		−1,37							−1,27		2
2346019	Santa Isabel									−1,15		1
2346344	Igaratá									−1,87		1

Código ANA	Cidade	Ano										Eventos de seca
Código ANA	Cidade	2005 2006	2006 2007	2007 2008	2008 2009	2009 2010	2010 2011	2011 2012	2012 2013	2013 2014	2014 2015	Eventos de seca
2244001	Queluz	−1,50								−1,75		2
2244010	Cachoeira Paulista									−3,68		1
2245020	Lorena								−1,30	−2,49		2
2245032	Guaratinguetá									−1,39		1
2245035	Pindamonhangaba									−1,54		1
2245048	Pindamonhangaba									−2,19		1
2245053	Aparecida	−1,94	−1,07				−1,70	−2,95	−2,70	−2,07		6
2245054	Monteiro Lobato									−1,00		1
2345001	Taubaté									−1,25	−1,43	2
2345004	Caçapava											0
2345008	Caçapava		−1,80		−1,24	−2,67	−2,49	−2,91	−2,97	−1,96		7
2345012	Caçapava											0
2345022	Jambeiro			−1,94				−1,73				2
2345062	Taubaté	−2,18								−1,32	−1,60	3
2345063	Caçapava									−3,86		1
2345071	Santa Branca									−1,82		1
2345106	Jacareí				−1,00				−1,13	−2,02		3
2345159	Taubaté									−1,70		1
2345161	Taubaté							−1,61				1
2345164	São José dos Campos									−1,21		1
2346019	Santa Isabel											0
2346344	Igaratá									−1,69		1

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[1] * Autor correspondente: mateus.vilanova@unesp.br