Projections of flow to assess nutrient inputs to the Mangueira lake, Rio Grande do Sul, on climate change scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ABSTRACT

Climate change can cause drastic changes in lake ecosystems, especially due to the increase in temperature and changes in precipitation, promoting, among other factors, an increase in the nutrients input and, therefore, eutrophication. This paper estimated the projected flow and nutrients load (NO₃⁻, PO₄^–3) at the Mangueira lake — a large subtropical shallow lake, located in southern Brazil. The projections were based on the AR5 products for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. In each scenario, data from as many as 39 global climate models were used to estimate the projected values of flow and nutrients in two 30-year time intervals centered at 2,030 (near future) and 2,070 (long future). Results show the increase in flow is more likely, with a greater agreement between AR5 products when compared to AR4 products estimated in previous work. The pattern of increase also prevails in the projections of nutrient loads. The nutrients analyzed show an average annual load increase of 9.34% in the near future and RCP 2.6 scenario, while in the long future and RCP 8.5 scenario, this value rises to 22.48%. Mitigation measures should be studied to reduce the nutrient inputs and to preserve a good ecological status of the lake.

Keywords:
climate change; flow projections; nutrient load projections