ABSTRACT
Waste generation is increasing due to population growth, urbanization, and economic development, especially in developing countries. Knowledge obtained on the generation of construction and demolition waste through forecasts can help decision makers adopt more efficient management practices, being fundamental to prevent the development of environmental issues. The objective of this article was to develop a model for forecasting the generation of construction and demolition waste for medium-sized Brazilian cities, using data from the municipality of Varginha, Minas Gerais. A multiple linear model (R2 = 0.880) was developed using Urban expansion, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and GDP per capita as independent variables to predict the amount of construction and demolition waste generated in 2020 and the amount that will be produced in 2040 in the municipality. The results of applying the model indicated an increase of 18.27% in the amount of construction and demolition waste generated in the municipality, when comparing the 2020 (39,940 t) and 2040 (47,238 t) scenarios. The efficiency of the model was also verified when applying it in six other Brazilian cities of similar population size and that had research carried out on the generation of construction and demolition waste . The difference between the amount of construction and demolition waste obtained by the authors and those calculated by the model was less than 13%. The results of this research can contribute to the development of efficient construction and demolition waste management strategies, considering that it provides a tool for the resolution of current environmental problems and also allows the adoption of proactive actions for the correct management in future scenarios.
Keywords:
sustainable construction; waste management; civil construction waste
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