A disaggregated analysis of Brazilian exports: a contribution to structuralist-kaldorian literature

Abstract

The virtuous cycle of growth described in the Kaldorian models starts with the increase in exports of products of greater technological content. In this work, to test the Kaldorian hypothesis that exports of higher technological content are important to sustain long-term growth, we analyse the increase in total Brazilian exports in the first five years of the 2000s, considering their destination. For this purpose, the input-output methodology was used with Brazilian total exports disaggregated to Mercosur, North American countries, EU 27 and China. The results showed that an increase in demand from higher-income countries impacted exports of commodities the most. Considering an increase in exports to Mercosur, the sectors most impacted were those of greater technological intensity. These findings imply that greater commercial integration with neighbouring Latin American countries, that have a productive structure with a similar technological maturity, should be a strategy to unleash the Kaldorian virtuous cycle in Brazil and other countries in the bloc.

Keywords:
Structuralist-kaldorian; Input-Output; Mercosul