The main objective of this work is to investigate if there are and what are the principal features in the business cycle of ad valorem tax's growth rate. To do that, Markov-switching and threshold models were used to estimate and analyze the business cycle in the monthly growth rate of Ceará's ad-valorem tax and to forecast. The results show that there are three regimes in the business cycle on the variable under analysis, and the growth rate of tourism and industrial activity may be used as threshold variables, which gives information about Ceará's ad-valorem tax business cycle and its future values.
ad valorem tax; business cycle; forecasting; threshold; Markov-switching
