Mayor Reelection and COVID-19 Response in 2020

Abstract

Did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the success or failure of candidates for reelection in the 2020 municipal elections? We attempt to answer this question by tested the influence of five-dimension variables: individual candidate traits, municipal political factors, socioeconomic and governance issues, as well as contextual indicators of the pandemic on the performance of those running for a second term. The study comprehended 3,032 cities in which mayors participated in elections. The following factors positively influenced reelection: population size, campaign expenses, investments in health, education, and hiring doctors during the pandemic. Nevertheless, negative drivers included electoral competition and mayors’ gender. We conclude therefore that the determining factors of reelection are connected to COVID-19 responses, individual candidate traits, and municipal political factors, rather than epidemiological phenomena such as the number of cases or even deaths.

reelection; pandemic; 2020 elections; emergency aid; Brazilian National Health System (SUS)