Around 14% of world dengue virus (DENV) cases occur in the Americas, most of them in Brazil. While socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral correlates have been analyzed thoroughly, the role played by population mobility on DENV epidemics, especially at the local level, remains scarce. This study assesses whether the daily pattern of population mobility is associated with DENV incidence in Campinas, a Brazilian major city with over 1.2 million inhabitants in São Paulo State. DENV notifications from 2007 to 2015 were geocoded at street level (n = 114,884) and combined with sociodemographic and environmental data from the 2010 population census. Population mobility was extracted from the Origin-Destination Survey (ODS), carried out in 2011, and daily precipitation was obtained from satellite imagery. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were applied. High population mobility presented a relevant positive effect on higher risk for DENV incidence. High income and residence in apartments were found to be protective characteristics against the disease, while unpaved streets, number of strategic points (such as scrapyards and tire repair shops), and precipitation were consistently risk factors.
Keywords:
Dengue; Population Dynamics; Environment
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Source: elaborated by the authors based on the shapefiles from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 2010, and State Metropolitan Transportation Secretariat, 2011. Note: red dotted lines refer to the main state roads that cross Campinas; numbers refer to OD units; unit 1 (center of the figure) comprises the city center.
Source: dengue - Information System on Diseases of Notification (SINAN); climate - Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Note: dengue cases represented in orange bars and precipitation in blue area; predominant dengue serotype(s) indicated in orange.