This study describes the trend of the coefficients of mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases (CbVD) among the elderly in São Paulo State, Brazil, from 1980 to 2012, before and after influenza vaccination campaigns, and identifies change points. It is an ecological, time-series study carried out with death data from the Health Ministry’s Mortality Information System and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. We used linear, polynomial and joinpoint regression models in the data analysis. Between 1980 and 2012, there were 480,955 deaths due to CbVD. The mean mortality coefficients decreased for both sexes in all age groups we analyzed, with the greatest reduction in the older ages and male sex. We observed a significant reduction in the mortality trend in 1998 for male sex in the age group 60-69 years (annual percent change - APC = -3%, 95%CI: -4.3; -1.6) and for all elderly (APC = -3.8%, 95%CI: -4.4; -3.1). Considering the period as a whole, we did not observe change points for the age group 70-79 (average annual percent change - AAPC = -3.3%, 95%CI: -3.5; -3.1) and, for male sex, for the group ≥ 80 years (AAPC = -2.9%, 95%CI: -3.1; -2.6). For all elderly, the mean percentage reduction was of 3.1% per year (AAPC = -3.1%, 95%CI: -3.5; -2.7). Results show a reduction in the mortality due to CbVD in the period, with different percentage variations in coefficient reduction. The study’s findings add information to the debate regarding possible effects of vaccination campaigns in reducing mortality due to CbVD among the elderly.
Keywords:
Cardiovascular Diseases; Cerebrovascular Disorders; Influenza Vaccines; Aged; Mortality
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