ABSTRACT:
The study predicted chicken meat production in 2019-2025 period for the leading chicken-producing countries with the help of the 1961-2018 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data since chicken meat consumption is so high worldwide. The USA ranks the first place while Brazil and China take second and third places, respectively. The analysis of the pioneer chicken meat-producing countries indicates that while the portion of the USA in world production decreases, the share, particularly Brazil and China, will approach that of the USA. World chicken meat production, which was 7.56 million tons in 1961, will increase to 139.19 million tons in 2025, and this production per capita is predicted to increase to 17.0 kg in 2025 from 2.4, 5.35, 9.80, and 15.0 kg in 1961, 1981, 2001, and 2018, respectively. Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Japan, and India will run the highest increases in production. However, the share of countries in chicken meat production will decrease from 61% to 60% in 2019-2025 compared to the 2012-2018 periods. This condition showed that apart from some leading countries, the production will keep a rapid increase in production. The increase in chicken meat production and chicken meat import worldwide will improve human nutrition, especially in developing and underdeveloped countries. Countries that run cost advantages and high-quality life standards in line with technological innovations produce processed chicken products, strengthen animal health, hygiene, and transportation standards, and attach importance to advertising activities that increase consumer demand will be more advantageous in this market.
Key words:
ARIMA model; world meat production; leading countries; prediction; poultry farming