The post-2015 housing real estate sector: crisis or adjustment?

Abstract

The article seeks to analyze the cycles of expansion, stability and contraction of the real estate market in the last two decades. To this end, it uses data referring to real estate financing within the scope of the Brazilian Housing Finance System and of the Minha Casa Minha Vida Program, the main housing program in the period between 2003 and 2020. Based on the indicators presented, it considers that the cycles of the real estate market depend, to a large extent, on the transformations occurred in the macroeconomic policy adopted in the country, which end up affecting public policies and the pattern of demand for real estate credit. However, it is during the contraction cycle that agents in the real estate market press for changes in the sector's regulation, which tend to impact the next expansion cycle.