Desenvolvimento e o Órgão de Solução de Controvérsias da Organização Mundial do Comércio: uma análise de sobrevivência

Carvalho, Samuel Rufino de; Lucena, Andréa Freire de

Samuel Rufino de Carvalho

Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brazil; samuelrc15@gmail.com. ORCiD 0000-0002-0146-9658.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0146-9658

Andréa Freire de Lucena

Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG), Goiânia-GO, Brazil; andrealucena@ufg.br. ORCiD 0000-0003-2984-3688

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-3688

Samuel Rufino de Carvalho is an International Relations PhD student at Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). He holds a Master’s degree in Political Science from the Faculty of Social Sciences of Federal University of Goiás (UFG). He holds a Degree in French Language Teaching from the Faculty of Letters of UFG. He also holds a Degree in International Relations from the Faculty of Social Sciences of the same institution. Research fields: Dispute Settlement Body of the World Trade Organization, International Relations, International Institutions, International Regimes, French teaching and learning. Experience in quantitative methods.

Andréa Freire de Lucena is a Professor of Economics, Political Science and International Relations at the Faculty of Management, Accounting and Economics and at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, Brazil. Coordinator of Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás (FAPEG), a Brazilian public funding institution. She holds a PhD and a Master’s degree in International Relations from de University of Brasília (UnB) and a Degree in Economic Sciences from the Federal University of Ceará. Research fields: International Economy, commercial policies, public policies, dispute settlement, international regimes.

CATEGORIES	DMs	DCs	LDCs
*Member countries*	*23.17%*	*56.70%*	*20.12%*
*Complaints*	*54.49%*	*45.33%*	*0.16%*
*Responses*	*55.69%*	*44.20%*	-
*Third parties*	*33.21%*	*66.13%*	*0.65%*
*Probability of resolution (2016)*	*69.40%*	*60.98%*	-

Author (year)	Estimation method	Time frame	Variables	Main results
Horn, Mavroidis and Nordström (1999)Horn, H, PC Mavroidis and H Nordström. 2005. ‘Is the Use of Dispute Settlement System Biased?’ In PC Mavroidis and AO Sykes (eds), The WTO and International Trade Law / Dispute Settlement. Northampton: Edward Elgar, pp. 454-486.	Probability model based on maximum-likelihood estimation	1995-1998	DV: Bilateral disputes Trade: Export diversity (Harmonized System): number of products exported LC: Number of delegators in the WTO Power: GNP	· Countries with diverse economies tend to find more trade measures susceptible to litigation; · Power (GNP) is not sufficient to explain why a country initiates a dispute; · Legal knowledge (number of delegators) seems to influence the initiation of a dispute.
Guzman and Simmons (2005)Guzman, A T and B A Simmons. 2005. ‘Power Plays and Capacity Constraints: The Selection Of Defendants in WTO Disputes.’ Journal of Legal Studies 34 (2): 557-598.	Ordinary least squares regression	1995-2004	DV: Number of disputes Power: GDP LC: Number of delegators in the WTO LC: Number of embassies LC: Government expenditures LC: BQI provided by ICRG	· The lack of finance (GDP), human (delegators, embassies) and institutional capital (government expenditures) undermine poor countries’ initiations of disputes.
Francois, Horn and Kaunitz (2008)	Negative binomial regression model	1998-2002	DV: Bilateral disputes Trade: Total bilateral exports and imports LC: Legal capacity quantity represented by GDP LC: Legal capacity quality represented by the World Bank Government Efficiency index multiplied by the logarithm of the GDP	· The composition of trade, the volume of trade, income levels and legal capacity (GDP) are significant variables for the initiation of disputes.
Reich (2017)Reich, A. 2017. ‘The Effectiveness of The WTO Dispute Settlement System: A Statistical Analysis.’ European University Institute 11: 1-32.	Non-parametric Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient	1996-2016	DV: Number of disputes Power: GDP and GNI per capita	· GDP (0.677) presents stronger correlation to the request of consultation than GNI (0.411).
Carvalho and Canesin (2018)Carvalho, M I V, and C H Canesin. 2018. ‘The Role of Institutional-Legal Capacity and Power in Explaining the Performance of Developing Countries in WTO Disputes against the G2.’ Contexto Internacional 40 (1): 161-185.	Generalized Linear Models (GLMs)	1995-2012	DV: Number of disputes against EU and US (G2) Power and LC: Power and institutional-legal capacity represented by GDP Power: GNP per capita Trade: Relative bilateral exports Trade: Relative exports related to the world	· Institutional-legal capacity and market power (GDP) are the most significant factors to initiate a dispute against the EU or the US; · GNP per capita does not affect the initiation of disputes against G2; · Total or absolute trade does not determine the initiation of complaints against G2; · The extent of bilateral export participation determines the likelihood of disputes being initiated against G2.

Te	Ct	Tt	Event	Str	Country	Stat	Pop	GDP	Exp	HDI	Cont
Te1	Ct1	Tt1	E1	Str1	1	Stat1	Pop1	GDP1	Exp1	HDI1	Cont1
...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...
Ten	Ctn	Ttn	En	Strn	n	Statn	Popn	GDPn	Expn	HDIn	Contn

Equation Variables
	*Equation 1*				*Equation 2*				*Equation 3*				*Equation 1*
	β	df	Sig.	HR	β	df	Sig.	HR	β	df	Sig.	HR	β	df	Sig.	HR
Status (complainant)	-	2	0.000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
DMs	3.201	1	0.002	24.546	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
DCs	2.403	1	0.017	11.056	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Population	0.000	1	0.000	1.000	0.000	1	0.000	1.000	0.000	1	0.000	1.000	0.000	1	0.000	1.000
GDP	0.000	1	0.721	1.000	0.000	1	0.002	1.000	-	-	-	-	0.000	1	0.000	1.000
Exports	0.000	1	0.747	1.000	0.000	1	0.231	1.000	-	-	-	-	0.000	1	0.114	1.000
Continent	-	4	0.000	-	-	4	0.000	-	-	4	0.000	-	-	4	0.000	-
America	3.731	1	0.000	41.702	4.313	1	0.000	74.663	4.176	1	0.000	65.100	4.498	1	0.000	89.862
Asia	3.300	1	0.001	27.103	3.789	1	0.000	44.216	3.502	1	0.001	33.167	3.986	1	0.000	53.858
Europe	3.259	1	0.001	26.025	4.210	1	0.000	67.325	3.972	1	0.000	53.082	4.448	1	0.000	85.415
Oceania	2.989	1	0.004	19.864	3.835	1	0.000	46.292	3.544	1	0.001	34.616	4.072	1	0.000	58.690
HDI	-	-	-	-	0.950	1	0.073	2.586	2.050	1	0.000	7.771	-	-	-	-
χ2	253.518	9	0.000	-	226.040	8	0.000	-	201.668	6	0.000	-	223.976	7	0.000	-
N	714				714				714				714

Equation Variables
	Equation 1				Equation 2				Equation 3				Equation 4
	β	df	Sig.	HR	β	df	Sig.	HR	β	df	Sig.	HR	β	df	Sig.	HR
Status (respondent)	-	2	0.000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
DMs	9.816	1	0.676	0.549	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
DCs	9.215	1	0.694	0.000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Population	0.000	1	0.000	1.000	0.000	1	0.000	1.000	0.000	1	0.000	1.000	0.000	1	0.000	1.000
GDP	0.000	1	0.263	1.000	0.000	1	0.000	1.000	-	-	-	-	0.000	1	0.000	1.000
Exports	0.000	1	0.310	1.000	0.000	1	0.415	1.000	-	-	-	-	0.000	1	0.491	1.000
Continent	-	4	0.000	-	-	4	0.000	-	-	4	0.000	-	-	4	0.000	-
America	1.204	1	0.000	3.332	2.013	1	0.000	7.484	1.781	1	0.000	5.936	1.942	1	0.000	6.973
Asia	0.897	1	0.006	2.451	1.578	1	0.000	4.845	1.044	1	0.002	2.841	1.509	1	0.000	4.521
Europe	0.506	1	0.148	1.658	1.719	1	0.000	5.580	1.353	1	0.000	3.868	1.627	1	0.000	5.088
Oceania	0.762	1	0.063	2.142	1.762	1	0.000	5.822	1.263	1	0.002	3.537	1.674	1	0.000	5.333
HDI	-	-	-	-	-0.358	1	0.530	0.699	1.604	1	0.000	4.975	-	-	-	-
χ2	243.925	9	0.000	-	228.131	8	0.000		186.525	6	0.000	-	227.920	7	0.000	-
N	741				741				741				741

[1] Samuel Rufino de Carvalho is an International Relations PhD student at Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). He holds a Master’s degree in Political Science from the Faculty of Social Sciences of Federal University of Goiás (UFG). He holds a Degree in French Language Teaching from the Faculty of Letters of UFG. He also holds a Degree in International Relations from the Faculty of Social Sciences of the same institution. Research fields: Dispute Settlement Body of the World Trade Organization, International Relations, International Institutions, International Regimes, French teaching and learning. Experience in quantitative methods.

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Desenvolvimento e o Órgão de Solução de Controvérsias da Organização Mundial do Comércio: uma análise de sobrevivência

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