Abstract
The aim of this study was to predict production indicators and to determine their potential economic impact on a poultry integration system using artificial neural networks (ANN) models. Forty zootechnical and production parameters from broiler breeder farms, one hatchery, broiler production flocks, and one slaughterhouse were selected as variables. The ANN models were established for four output variables: “saleable hatching”, “weight at the end of week 5,” “partial condemnation,” and “total condemnation” and were analyzed in relation to the coefficient of multiple determination (R2), correlation coefficient (R), mean error (E), mean squared error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The production scenarios were simulated and the economic impacts were estimated. The ANN models were suitable for simulating production scenarios after validation. For “saleable hatching”, incubator and egg storage period are likely to increase the financial gains. For “weight at the end of the week 5” the lineage (A) is important to increase revenues. However, broiler weight at the end of the first week may not have a significant influence. Flock sex (female) may influence the “partial condemnation” rates, while chick weight at first day may not. For “total condemnation”, flock sex and type of chick may not influence condemnation rates, but mortality rates and broiler weight may have a significant impact.
Keywords:
artificial intelligence; data management; economic impact; poultry production
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Legend: (1) lineage A × clean nest egg × incubator A; (2) lineage A × clean nest egg × incubator B; (3) lineage A × dirty nest egg × incubator A; (4) lineage A × dirty nest egg × incubator B; (5) lineage B × clean nest egg × incubator A; (6) lineage B × clean nest egg × incubator B; (7) lineage B × dirty nest egg × incubator A; (8) lineage B × dirty nest egg × incubator B; (9) egg storage period (average: 113 h); (10) egg storage period (reduced: 74 h); (11) egg storage period (extended: 152 h).
Legend: (23) lineage A or lineage B × male flocks; (24) lineage A or lineage B × female flocks; (25) chick weight (mean: 45.93 g) × male flocks; (26) chick weight (increased: 49 g) × male flocks; (27) chick weight (decreased: 42.85 g) × male flocks; (28) chick weight (mean: 46.01 g) × female flocks; (29) chick weight (increased: 49.61 g) × female flocks; (30) chick weight (decreased: 42.41 g) × female flocks; (31) chick weight (maximum: 50.2 g) × female flocks; (32) chick weight (minimum: 33.1 g) × female flocks; (33) broiler weight at the end of week 2 (mean: 467.69 g) × male flocks; (34) broiler weight at the end of week 2 (increased: 508.41 g) × male flocks; (35) broiler weight at the end of week 2 (decreased: 426.97 g) × male flocks; (36) broiler weight at the end of week 3 (mean: 922.50 g) × male flocks; (37) broiler weight at the end of week 3 (increased: 1,010.28 g) × male flocks; (38) broiler weight at the end of week 3 (decreased: 834.72 g) × male flocks; (39) broiler weight at the end of weeks 2 and 3 (decreased: 508.41 g and 1,010.28 g, respectively) × male flocks.
Legend: (40) lineage A or lineage B × male flocks; (41) lineage A or lineage B × female flocks; (42) type of chick (from breeder up to 37 weeks old) × male flocks; (43) type of chick (from breeder up to 37 weeks old) × female flocks; (44) type of chick (from breeder up to 38 to 49 weeks old) × male flocks; (45) type of chick (from breeder up to 38 to 49 weeks old) × female flocks; (46) type of chick (from breeder to more than 49 weeks old) × male flocks; (47) type of chick (from breeder to more than 49 weeks old) × female flocks; (48) mortality at the end of weeks 1, 2, and 3 (low: 0.09%, 0.62%, and 0.97%, respectively); (49) mortality at the end of weeks 1, 2, and 3 (high: 1.39%, 1.70%, and 2.45%, respectively); (50) mortality at the end of weeks 1, 2, and 3 (maximum: 2.16%, 4.45%, and 4.06%, respectively); (51) broiler weight at the end of week 2 (mean: 467.69 g) × male flocks; (52) broiler weight at the end of week 2 (increased: 508.41 g) × male flocks; (53) broiler weight at the end of week 2 (decreased: 426.97 g) × male flocks.