Evaluation and development of the intuitive approach for understanding probabilities: Scopes produced by high school students

Abstract

The assignment of values to situations of uncertainty is evaluated from probabilistic intuitions with 41 high school students (16-17 years old) through a questionnaire of eleven closed items. Then, we implemented a 20-hour formative cycle of probabilities and their representations in daily life and the analyzed the changes produced in the arguments written in two items by the students. The results indicate greater variability in the students’ post-test intuitions of habitual context and significant improvement in knowledge with probabilistic arguments. Consequently, probability teaching is promoted at an early age, from intuitions to confrontation with formal knowledge and that considers experimentation, varied arguments, and the connections between the meanings of probability.

Keywords:
Teaching; Probability; Intuitions; Probabilistic reasoning; Secondary education