Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan

Previsão de produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas usando modelos inteligentes de dados no Paquistão

Abstract

This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe’s (LM), Willmott’s index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NS_E) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Keywords:
climate change; forest yield; RF and KRR models; prediction; Gallies forest; Abbottabad