Health risk assessments of exposure carbon dioxide among communities and children around Tonasa cement plant, Pangkep Regency, Indonesia. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) application

Avaliações de risco à saúde na exposição ao dióxido de carbono entre comunidades e crianças ao redor da fábrica de cimento Tonasa, Pangkep Regency, Indonésia. Aplicação da Simulação de Monte Carlo (MCS)

Abstract

Chronic exposure to carbon dioxide (CO₂) can have a negative influence on one's health and be hazardous to the environment. It could be both directly and indirectly to those communities who are living near the CO₂ point sources. This study aimed to investigate the magnitude of CO₂ level in ambient air and its spatial distribution which then continued to assess the potential health risks posed by communities living surround the site as well as applied the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach to predict the risks magnitude among adult and children due to CO₂ air pollution from the cement industry activities in Pangkep. This observational analytic study applied health risk assessment due to the CO₂ exposure both to adult and children population. To estimate the non carcinogenic risk, study used the Monte Carlo Simulation model with 10,000 iterations to estimate the risk through the inhalation pathway suffered by communities, as well as analyzing the sensitivity level every single health risk parameter. The highest risks for the adults was in station 7 with 7,641 whereas the lowest risks was in station 3 with 1,194, respectively. Furthermore, the highest risks for child was in station 4 with 498 whereas the lowest one was in station 15 with 32, respectively. Those non carcinogenic HQ were exceed the standard for adult but not at risks for children. The results of the Monte Carlo Simulation that assessed the non risks cancer probability with the 5^th and 95^th percentiles demonstrated that adult population were at value of 0.83 and 1.53 0.83 and 1.53 respectively, that still indicated at low risk for developing adverse health effects among those communities temporarily. However, at the same percentiles children indicated at value of 199 and 388 that indicated at risk for developing adverse health effects among those children. In addition, level of sensitivity analysis result indicated that exposure frequency with (20,9%) for adult and the exposure duration with (25,6%) for children were the most contributing factors to health risks among, respectively. Simulation determines the critical factors with major effects in reducing health risks. The CO₂ magnitude not poses risks to adults, by contrast, children are at risk. Thus, limiting exposure frequency and inhalation of CO₂ levels in the school for children area are highly demanded.

Keywords:
carbon dioxide; health effect; children and adult exposures; Monte Carlo Simulation; health risks