SIMULATION OF URBAN GROWTH: A CASE STUDY FOR CURITIBA CITY, BRAZIL

Freitas, Eliana Vieira de; Araki, Hideo

doi:10.1590/s1982-21702021000s00019

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE • Bol. Ciênc. Geod. 27 (spe) • 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/s1982-21702021000s00019 copy

SIMULATION OF URBAN GROWTH: A CASE STUDY FOR CURITIBA CITY, BRAZIL

Simulação do crescimento urbano: estudo de caso para a cidade de Curitiba, Brasil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract:

The present work seeks to model the simulation of the landscape of the city of Curitiba, through the use of cellular automata (CA) algorithms, together with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing tools. Four models were elaborated, having as input data classified images from the years 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2014; and different time intervals between the initial and final landscape of the models. Geographic data of the city were also used, as well as the current legislation of the municipality, and such data contributed to the robustness of the modelling. Two validation tests were applied to verify the adequacy of the simulated models concerning the observed reality. The validation performed by the Multiple Resolutions Adjustment method indicated that the model elaborated with data from 2009 and 2011 reached the highest similarity index, being equal to 0.88. Thus, it was possible to carry out geosimulations and these indicated that, as long as the trends observed in the past are maintained, the urban expansion of the municipality will occur at the expense of vegetation.

Keywords:
Landscape; Modelling; Cellular Automata; Geosimulations

Static variables	Criteria
Areas where urban expansion is unlikely to reach	Water bodies, environmental protection areas, parks and forests. It also includes a military area.
Distance to main streets	Urban growth is expected to occur close to the main streets.
Distance to the “urban” class of the initial landscape	It is expected that the advance of the urban area will take place close to the already urbanized regions.
Distance to the “water” class of the initial landscape	This variable was used to model changes involving the “water” class.
Digital Terrain Model (DTM)	Used to analyze the relationship between altitude and changes involving vegetation.
Slope	The regions with the highest slope are expected to have less urban occupation.
Zones of Curitiba	Zoning establishes spatial planning, which is closely linked to the behavior of changes that occur in the urban landscape.
Zones of the Environmental Protection Area (APA) of Iguaçu and APA of Passaúna	These two variables were considered as complementary to the Zones of Curitiba. In the zoning of Curitiba, only the limits of these two conservation areas were considered. However, besides being areas of environmental preservation, there are areas of urban occupation together, which are guided by municipal legislation.

Model	Initial landscape	Final landscape
1	2006	2009
2	2009	2011
3	2009	2014
4	2011	2014

Class	Area (km²)		Expansion/Reduction (km²)	Relative change
Class	2009	2011
Urban	282.93	299.59	16.66	5.89%
Vegetation	143.40	127.12	-16.28	-11.35%
Water	8.47	8.09	-0.38	-4.49%

Class	Area (km²)
Class	2011 - Reality	2011 - Simulated
Urban	299.59	299.60
Vegetation	127.12	127.13
Water	8.09	8.07

Class	Area (Km²)
Class	2020	2030	2040
Urban	306.66	318.70	328.39
Vegetation	120.22	108.48	99.05
Water	7.91	7.61	7.35

Universidade Federal do Paraná Centro Politécnico, Jardim das Américas, 81531-990 Curitiba - Paraná - Brasil, Tel./Fax: (55 41) 3361-3637 - Curitiba - PR - Brazil
E-mail: bcg_editor@ufpr.br

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[1] AUTHOR´S CONTRIBUTION

Eliana Vieira de Freitas wrote the manuscript and carried out the experiments. Hideo Araki contributed by discussing the theme and the results, and paper reviewing and refinement.