Socioenvironmental Vulnerability to Climate Change: Conditions of Coastal Municipalities in Pará State

Santos, Marcos Ronielly da Silva; Vitorino, Maria Isabel; Pereira, Luci Cajueiro Carneiro; Pimentel, Marcia Aparecida da Silva; Quintão, Ana Flávia

doi:10.1590/1809-4422asoc20200167r1vu2021L3AO

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Original Article • Ambient. soc. 24 • 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4422asoc20200167r1vu2021L3AO copy

Socioenvironmental Vulnerability to Climate Change: Conditions of Coastal Municipalities in Pará State

Vulnerabilidad Socio-Ambiental al Cambio Climático: Condiciones en Los Municipios Costeros Del Estado de Pará

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

The aim of the current study is to analyze the vulnerability of coastal municipalities in Pará State, based on the integration of socioeconomic, epidemiological and climatic indicators. Data were combined to climate scenarios such as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, depending on the Municipal Vulnerability Index (MVI). Results have shown that the Sensitivity (SeI) and Sociodemographic (SdI) Indices had strong influence on the current vulnerability of the investigated municipalities. The association between current vulnerability index and future climate change projections has shown that municipalities located in Marajó Island region are the most vulnerable ones - to the West of the study site, where MVI ranged from 1 (in Afuá) to 0.55 (in Soure), for scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The current results can contribute to the effective adoption of public policies focused on prioritizing the most vulnerable municipalities and on preparing them to deal with adverse aspects of climate change.

Keywords:
Climate; Risks; Socioenvironment; Costal Region; Pará State

Municipality	VCI	NDI	CEI	ExI	EDI	SdI	SeI	FMDI	PCCI	ACI	GVI	CI 4.5	CI 8.5	MVI 4.5	MVI 8.5
Afuá	0.14	0.16	1.00	0.36	0.14	0.92	0.86	1	1	1.00	1.00	1.0	1	1.00	1.00
Ananindeua	0.57	0.33	0.43	0.38	0.73	0.08	0.55	0.25	0.25	0.14	0.47	0.8	0.4	0.59	0.34
Augusto Corrêa	0.43	0.83	0.57	0.69	0.40	0.77	0.99	0.5	0	0.14	0.82	0.0	0	0.34	0.31
Barcarena	0.57	0.33	0.57	0.46	0.26	0.23	0.16	0	0.25	0.00	0.27	0.8	0.4	0.48	0.22
Belém	0.71	0	0.71	0.43	1.00	0.00	0.78	0	0.75	0.29	0.67	0.6	0.4	0.59	0.45
Benevides	0.43	0.16	0.14	0.00	0.14	0.23	0.02	0.25	0	0.00	0.00	0.8	0.4	0.33	0.06
Bragança	0.43	1	0.57	0.79	0.66	0.46	0.92	0.5	0	0.14	0.83	0.4	0	0.57	0.31
Cachoeira do Arari	0.86	0.66	0.29	0.67	0.00	0.46	0.13	0.75	1	0.86	0.74	0.6	0.6	0.63	0.61
Chaves	0.00	0.66	1.00	0.67	0.00	1.00	0.78	0.5	0.75	0.57	0.91	0.8	1	0.84	0.95
Colares	0.57	0.33	0.71	0.55	0.00	0.54	0.22	0.25	0	0.00	0.34	0.4	0.4	0.30	0.26
Curuçá	0.43	0.5	0.57	0.48	0.00	0.54	0.22	0.75	0.25	0.43	0.50	0.8	0.6	0.61	0.47
Magalhães Barata	0.43	0.33	0.43	0.29	0.00	0.54	0.22	0.5	0	0.14	0.28	0.4	0.6	0.27	0.34
Maracanã	0.43	0.33	0.57	0.38	0.07	0.54	0.30	1	0	0.43	0.49	0.2	0.2	0.27	0.23
Marapanim	0.43	0.66	0.43	0.49	0.15	0.46	0.31	0.5	0.25	0.29	0.48	0.8	0.6	0.60	0.46
Marituba	0.43	0.16	0.29	0.10	0.59	0.15	0.47	0.25	0.5	0.29	0.38	0.8	0.4	0.54	0.28
Ponta de Pedras	0.43	0.16	0.57	0.27	0.15	0.46	0.31	0.5	0.5	0.43	0.45	0.6	0.4	0.47	0.32
Primavera	0.43	0.33	0.29	0.20	0.00	0.39	0.03	0.25	0	0.00	0.09	0.2	0.2	0.05	0
Quatipuru	0.43	0.33	0.43	0.29	0.38	0.62	0.77	0.5	0.5	0.43	0.67	0.2	0.2	0.37	0.34
Salinópolis	0.43	0.33	0.71	0.47	0.13	0.23	0.00	0.25	0	0.00	0.20	0.0	0.2	0.00	0.06
Salvaterra	0.71	0.5	0.71	0.74	0.00	0.46	0.13	0.5	0.5	0.43	0.58	0.0	0.4	0.21	0.40
Santa Bárbara do Pará	0.43	0	0.29	0.00	0.07	0.39	0.11	0.25	0	0.00	0.04	0.6	0.4	0.24	0.08
Santa Cruz do Arari	1.00	0.5	0.00	0.48	0.30	0.54	0.59	0.5	0	0.14	0.54	0.6	0.6	0.52	0.49
Santo Antônio do Tauá	0.57	0.66	0.29	0.49	0.28	0.39	0.37	0.5	0	0.14	0.44	0.6	0.4	0.47	0.32
São Caetano de Odivelas	0.43	0.33	0.43	0.29	0.00	0.46	0.13	0.75	0	0.29	0.31	1.0	0.4	0.62	0.24
São João da Ponta	0.43	0.5	0.29	0.31	0.00	0.54	0.22	0.25	0	0.00	0.23	0.2	0.4	0.13	0.19
São João de Pirabas	0.43	0.33	0.71	0.47	0.13	0.62	0.47	0.5	0	0.14	0.48	0.2	0	0.27	0.11
Soure	1.00	0.33	1.00	0.99	0.26	0.46	0.44	0.5	0.5	0.43	0.84	0.4	0.4	0.58	0.55
Tracuateua	0.57	0.33	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.62	0.67	1	0	0.43	0.62	0.0	0	0.23	0.19
Vigia	0.43	0.5	0.43	0.39	0.25	0.46	0.43	0.75	0.5	0.57	0.62	0.4	0.4	0.46	0.42
Viseu	0.29	0.33	0.57	0.29	0.29	0.77	0.86	0.5	0.5	0.43	0.71	0.0	0	0.28	0.24

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[1] Marcos Ronielly da Silva Santos ✉ mronielly.mr@gmail.com