Modeling of the potential distribution of Eichhornia crassipes on a global scale: risks and threats to water ecosystems

Modelagem de distribuição potencial da Eichhornia crassipes em escala global: riscos e ameaças para os ecossistemas aquáticos

Abstract

The water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) is listed among the 100 worst invasive plants and was ranked as the 11^th worst invasive species in Europe, being a threat to aquatic biodiversity and water-provision. Predicting species distribution is the first step to understanding niche suitability, forecasting the invasion impact and building resilience against this species. In this study, we used a potential distribution model to assess the global risk of water hyacinth invasion by overlapping maps of highly suitable areas for water hyacinth occurrence and areas of biological importance and water scarcity. The MaxEnt - Maximum Entropy algorithm was used in the construction of the model and included five global bioclimatic layers and one of urbanized areas. Among the variables used, occurrence is mainly explained by urban areas, highlighting the importance of cities as a source or dispersion mechanism of the water hyacinth. Global biodiversity hotspots are predominantly situated in high suitability regions for the species. Ramsar sites and global protected areas are at a lower risk level compared to hotspots; however, future climate change and urban growth scenarios could put these areas at higher risk for invasion. Threats posed by the water hyacinth are possibly more acute in regions suffering from current or chronic drought. The results suggest that niche models that do not consider anthropic variables may be underestimating potential distribution of invasive species. Furthermore, the ecological plasticity of the water hyacinth and its close association with cities increase the concern about the impact of this species on the environment and on water security.

Keywords:
invasive species; species distribution modeling; water hyacinth